What's in a number?

When you're talking about a gigantic $900 million shortfall, a lot.

And the state's three largest daily papers seem to have slightly different versions of the "we're all screwed" number.

On Tuesday, Anjeanette Damon in the Reno Gazette Journal put at "about $1 billion." http://www.rgj.com/article/20100126/NEWS/1260346/1321/NEWS/Nevada-governor-to-address-state-on-budget-crisis

This week, the Review-Journal http://www.lvrj.com/news/jobs-on-line-for-state-schools-82773377.html and Sun's articles http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/jan/26/gibbons-lawmakers-search-common-ground-budget/ are largely sticking to $900 million.

So, is Reno $100 million off?

Not exactly.

Reporting revenues and expenditures in Nevada is an inexact science for journalists.

The actual hole -- that is to say how much revenue we're short for this current fiscal year -- is $580 million.

The shortfall in revenue for education has been reported three different ways by the three papers. The Sun says it's $230 million. The RGJ says it's "about $200 million" and the RJ puts it at $250 million.

The papers seem to agree that increased Medicaid caseload will cost another $60 million. The RJ is the only paper to report an additional $9 million for TANF (Temporary Assistance to Needy Families) costs.

Like we said, an inexact science, this reporting.

RJ is right on $899 with its math. You can't get closer to $900 million.

The Sun's math gets us to $870, almost close enough to round up to $900 million

Reno's math puts the total at the lowest -- $840. Yet Reno is the only paper rounding up to $1 billion.

The grim reality is that there's no immediate horizon for an end to the state's economic woes. At the end of the day, Damon's $1 billion may be correct.

But the $1 billion mark has deep history in Nevada.

In 2003, Kenny Guinn proposed $1 billion in taxes. The Legislature approved $833 million. Still the tax hike in 2003 is largely referred to as the billion dollar baby.

Last year lawmakers raised $1.1 billion in new tax revenue.

The real voodoo economics, of course, comes from the politicians' spin. Gov. Jim Gibbons says we're in the current hole because of that $1.1 billion tax increase.

Since Nevada still does two-year budgets, that $1.1 billion figure is spread out over two years. Can you imagine what the hole would look like if lawmakers hadn't added more than $500 million in new revenue to this fiscal year's budget?

Like we said, big numbers don't make for an exact science. And spinning them doesn't help anyone.

The best quote we've found anywhere to sum up the current mess is from a man who probably knows precisely what the real number is today and what it will be in three months.

"The fundamental way in which we provide government services is rapidly coming to an end, as is the time for half-measures," said Jeremy Aguero, a principal at the economics research firm Applied Analysis, who has studied the budget. "The state is in serious trouble."

Aguero made these comments today in the RJ's story by Benjamin Spillman and Ed Vogel. Sadly, Aguero knew this was coming way back in 2002 when he first studied the budget. The sky has been falling for years. And what will we get in the special session next month? More half-measures.

**

Speaking of Ed Vogel's budget reporting, there's a correction today about his Tuesday article.

"A story about Nevada’s budget woes in Tuesday’s Review-Journal contained an error. The proposed Ivanpah airport near Primm would be a commercial airport. "

The difference between commercial and cargo comes into play because Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley suggested the airport could become a cargo hub as a means to raise additional revenue. The airport says it's too busy shuttling passengers to fill the hotel rooms.

Like we said, anyway you slice up the state's fiscal health, "we're all screwed."

Chalk up a correction for Vogel. And if the numbers keep moving, we imagine his budget reporting will keep generating more corrections.